Course Title:   Decision Mathemaics

Instructor:    Michael D. Warner

Office Hours/Instructor Availability:

I hold office hours 24 hours a day on Saturday, Sunday, and public school holidays and 3PM to 6AM on Monday through Friday. The primary way to contact me at any time is by email with secondary contact by phone as listed above. Both home and work phone numbers have 24 hour voice mail. On class days, arrangements can be made to meet with me either before or after class.

Course Text: Mason, R.D., Lind, D.A., and Marchal, W.G. (1999). Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics. (10th ed.). Boston: Irwin McGraw-Hill.

Supplemental Material:

1. World Wide Web pages:

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) Library Resources: [On-line]. Available: http://www.embryriddle.edu/libraries/

Resident Center Riddle Aviation Collection (RAC). Available at the Resident Center.

Extended Campus Videotape Library. Available at the Resident Center.

Guide to Library Resources (Area Libraries). Available at the Resident Center.

Extended Campus Student Handbook: [On-line]. Available: http://www.ec.erau.edu/cce/faculty/studhndbk.shtml

Resident Center computer(s) for academic support. Available at the Resident Center.

Bender, A. R., Schultz, J. T., & Landgren, E. W. (Eds.). (1997). Guide to the graduate research project. Daytona Beach, FL: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

American Psychological Association. (1994). Publication manual of the American Psychological Association (4th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.

Course Description:

The mathematical concepts and applications in mathematical model building and problem solving. Included are mathematical areas which are basic to decision theory.

Prerequisites: MA 211 or MA 222. (Not open to engineering students.)

Goals:

This course is required in the Aviation Business Administration and Aviation Maintenance Management degree programs. Its purpose is to provide a foundation upon which management decision problems can be solved.

Learning Objectives:

Upon course completion, students will be able to:

1. Construct an ANOVA table and use the F-test.

2. Compute the linear regression line using the method of least squares.

3. Predict new y-values using the least squares regression line.

4. Compute the coefficient of determination.

5. Analyze the simple regression model.

6. Compute confidence intervals in the simple regression model.

7. Compute and analyze Pearson's correlation coefficient.

8. Solve and analyze multiple linear regression problems.

9. Test hypotheses for multiple regression models.

10. Analyze the Chi-square test of independence for categorical variables.

11. Perform contingent table analysis.

12. Use the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and rank-sum test.

13. Use the Kruskal-Wallis test for several independent samples.

14. Compute and interpret Spearman's coefficient of rank correlation.

15. Construct and interpret a Pareto chart, a fishbone diagram, a mean chart, and a range chart, a percent defective chart, and a c-bar chart.

16. Construct and interpret a Laspeyres price index, a Paasche price index, and a value index.

17. Define and identify the four components of a time series.

18. Forecast future value of the time series using moving average, logarithmic trend equation, and least squares method.

19. Identify and solve three types of decision problems, using maximax, maximin, the expected payoff, and opportunity loss criteria.

20. Compute the expected value of perfect information.

21. Do sensitivity analysis.

22. Construct decision trees.

23. Demonstrate cogent abilities to write, speak, and think in scientific terms relevant to the concepts of this course as enhanced with computer technologies, as mutually agreed upon by the student and instructor.

The course grade will be determined from the results obtained from two area content quizzes, a student report and presentation of an instructor approved research paper, assigned in-class/homework, participation, and a final exam using the following weights:

Make-Up of Classes/Examinations: The faculty of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University affirms the importance of prompt and regular attendance on the part of all students. Quality instruction clearly depends upon active student participation in the classroom or its equivalent learning environment. Your participation is particularly important in this course, since each class constitutes a significant percentage of the total course. All absences, regardless of reason, require a make-up assignment, mutually arranged between the instructor and the student. If an absence is anticipated, the student should notify the instructor, preferably in advance. Students are encouraged to assist each other with access to class notes for missed classes.

ERAU Extended Campus Faculty Academic Orientation Manual (FAOM) (1996).Plagiarism can be defined as: Intentional use as one’s own, of any written material or ideas that has been created by another person, without clearly acknowledging that material by citation ("The American," 1985). There are three related activities:
1. Word-for word plagiarism involves a person copying another author’s work on a word-for-word basis, or by altering only a phrase or clause (Schwartz, 1991). This is avoided by quotation marks around the phrase and a citation, including the author’s last name, year of publication, and page number in parentheses (American Psychological Association (APA), 1994).
2. Paraphrase plagiarism is an attempt to substitute key words, phrases, or sentences of the original meaning or theme that is the same as the author’s (Schwartz, 1991). Avoid this by a citation of the author’s last name and publication year in parentheses (APA, 1994).
3. Mosaic plagiarism is done by taking important phrases, terms, ideas, or intellectual themes from another author and placing them in the person’s own work. Avoid by quoting and citing (Schwartz, 1991).
Plagiarism is normally committed unintentionally because the writer does not understand what the term means. Please become familiar with this policy to avoid unnecessary administrative actions.

Harassment and Unethical Behavior: All employees and students have a right to an environment free of discrimination, including freedom from sexual harassment. It is the policy of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University that no employee or student may sexually harass another. The intent of this policy is not to create a climate of discomfort but to foster responsible behavior in an academic and working environment free of discrimination. The University sexual harassment policy can be found in ERAU Administrative Policies and Procedures Manual (APPM) section 8.3.4 at http://www.db.erau.edu/appm/policy/8-3-4.html

Student Preparation and Participation: As a MINIMUM, all students are EXPECTED to have READ and thought about the information provided in the assigned chapters BEFORE class commences! This is a professional responsibility to yourself and your classmates. Active participation in class discussions is an important element of a collegiate program; it is evaluated by instructors and is reflected in the assignment of course grades. Participation includes the quantity and quality of comments and class discussions, lively fellowship, positive contributions to group assignments, ability to respond to questions by classmates and the instructor and ability to work as a member of a group. Students are expected to synthesize, analyze and integrate all reading assignments. It is obvious that consistent attendance and being on time is an essential ingredient of participation.

Please make comments about this page or requests for information to mwarner1@mindspring.com

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